Deterioration in Bahrain

From the NY Times.  The decision by the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Saudi Arabia specifically, to send troops into Bahrain to help the government deal with predominately Shiite dissidents is extremely disconcerting.  Violence in the country has already increased.

I see several problems with this move by the Saudis.  First and foremost, I dislike the notion of the region's monarchies banding together to suppress dissent.  I believe that this strategy is doomed to failure in the long run, and perhaps even in the shorter term.  Democratic forces are on the move in the region and I'm not sure that even the heavily armed and US supported monarchies of the Gulf can permanently suppress their people.

Second, there is a very significant chance that this could cause broader conflict between the Shiite and Sunni communities in the region at large.  Iran has already made some threatening noises about the intervention.  It seems likely that Iran will attempt to support the Shiite in Bahrain with arms, cash, etc.   Additionally, there is the chance the results will be exactly the opposite of what the Saudis are hoping for.  The immediate Saudi goal is to suppress the Shiite protestors in order to discourage their own Shiite minority from following in the Bahraini's footsteps.  I see it as at least possible, however, that the Shiite in the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia may increase their own activities in solidarity.

Finally, I have a nagging concern about what this could mean in Iraq.  There is a possibility that this could develop into a full-fledged proxy war between the region's dominant Shiite and Sunni powers: Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Both have provided a great deal of financing and arms to proxies in Iraq over the years.  I think people have to be concerned that if this incident doesn't stop in Bahrain, the conflict may spill over into Iraq and undo the progress that has been made there.